CLARITY Act passage odds fall to 30% as Senate deadline nears

For crypto investors, the CLARITY Act's path through the US Senate is narrowing. Galaxy Digital now estimates a 30% chance that lawmakers pass the market-structure bill this year, down from 50%. It says a deal is needed by July 30 to allow time for Senate floor proceedings before the August recess.

Republicans released a 616-page combined draft on July 22. The bill includes ethics restrictions on senior federal officials issuing or sponsoring cryptocurrencies, expanded fraud and illicit-finance provisions, stronger CFTC registration and custody rules, and changes to stablecoin oversight under the GENIUS Act.

Those changes have not secured enough Democratic support. Seven senators involved in negotiations said the draft still falls short on ethics, consumer protection, conflicts of interest, illicit finance and market integrity. The bill needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Republicans hold 53 seats, while Galaxy estimates supporters may have about 50 dependable Republican votes. Sens. Josh Hawley and Rand Paul are expected to oppose it, and Mitch McConnell has not voted since his hospitalization.

Crypto industry groups, the Fraternal Order of Police and the National Black Church Initiative are urging Senate leaders to move ahead. Majority Leader John Thune said he wants to at least start the process, but acknowledged that the vote count remains uncertain.