Bitcoin stalls as $2.5B July options trade nears expiry

Bitcoin's July options expiries have failed to break its narrow trading range, leaving the spot market to determine the next move. The cryptocurrency traded near $64,000 over the weekend after failing to hold $66,000.

About 19,000 Bitcoin options worth $1.2 billion expired on Deribit Friday, with a max-pain level of $64,500. Bitcoin closed at $64,140. The previous week's expiry produced a similar result. These outcomes weaken the idea that max pain or dealer hedging can pull Bitcoin toward a particular price. The contracts' stated value also represents the Bitcoin referenced, not the amount traders put at risk.

Selling pressure increased into the settlement. Bitcoin sellers crossed the spread more often on Thursday and Friday, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $225.2 million in outflows on Thursday. Leveraged long liquidations reached $45.9 million, compared with $7.4 million for shorts. Futures and perpetual open interest still rose to $22.35 billion, suggesting new positions were added as prices fell.

Attention now turns to Deribit's July 31 expiry. Nearly $5 billion in open interest sits at the $70,000 and $72,000 strikes, including a call spread with about $2.5 billion in gross notional value. Bitcoin needs to gain roughly 9% in six days for the lower strike to finish in the money. Deribit puts the chance of reaching $70,000 during July at 14.5%. Ethereum also had $234 million in options expire Friday.