Bitcoin rally faces 60-day Iran oil and Fed test

Bitcoin’s latest move matters because it is tied less to Iran itself than to oil, inflation and the Fed. Iran’s foreign minister said talks with the US will start when both sides sign a memorandum of understanding, followed by a 60-day period to settle the nuclear issue and sanctions relief.

Markets reacted to the lower near-term energy risk. Brent crude dropped about 5% to $78.96, while WTI settled at $76.05, near three-month lows, as traders priced in less danger around the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of renewed Iranian oil exports. The US Energy Information Administration said the route carried about 20% of global oil and petroleum product consumption in 2024 and early 2025.

For Bitcoin, the link runs through monetary policy. A Reuters poll found nearly 70% of economists expect the Fed to keep rates at 3.50% to 3.75% through 2026, with no surveyed economist expecting a cut at the June 16-17 meeting. One oil selloff is unlikely to change that without lower prices lasting for months.

The next 60 days now matter more than the announcement. Updates on enrichment limits, inspection terms, sanctions waivers, shipping volumes or Iranian exports could move crude again, and with it Bitcoin’s broader risk backdrop.